I was back in the CTV Kitchener studio on October 14 for another Keys to the Market segment. The question on the table: will Waterloo Region’s housing market cool off this fall? Below is a summary of what we covered, along with a few practical notes for buyers and sellers in Cambridge, Kitchener and Waterloo. You can watch the full segment on CTV News Kitchener.
What are the latest trends in Waterloo Region?
The first question was simple: what has been going on? I shared that our market has about 3.8 months of supply, which is close to where we were the last time we sat down. The bigger story is direction. We are starting to shift from a balanced market toward what our industry calls a buyer’s market, which means more opportunity for buyers.
I also noted that sales are down about 19% compared to this time last year, and listings are down about 12.5%. In plain terms, fewer homes are trading hands, and buyers who are ready have a real chance to get in and secure something.
What are sellers hearing right now?
Next we talked about sellers. Roughly one in three homes are selling right now, about the same as when I was last on the show, and a lot of sellers are frustrated. They are not sure what is going on. My answer was that it really comes down to pricing. In this market, you have to price your home well to actually get it sold.
For sellers in Cambridge and Kitchener: an asking price that worked for a neighbour a while ago may not work today. Start with recent comparable sales, not hopes, and be ready to adjust if showings are quiet in the first couple of weeks.
Are condos still slow?
There has been a lot of chatter about condos, so the host asked whether there are more on the market and whether they are selling. My honest answer: condos are slow. They are the slowest product we have right now, with about 7.8 months of supply. Put simply, if every other condo listing cleared first, a newly listed condo would take about 7.8 months to sell.
That is tough for condo sellers, but it is a great opportunity for first time buyers, including students coming out of university, because condo pricing has been suppressed drastically. I also mentioned that the Bank of Canada was expected to hold its rate this month, with what I described as an 85% chance the variable rate stays put. That combination is another reason buyers should really consider this market.
How do you compare condos and townhouses?
The host asked whether condos are compared with townhouses. They are separate. We want to compare apples to apples. When we value a condo, we look at that specific building, its amenities, its condo fees, which are a big factor, and the size of the unit.
Tip for condo buyers: two units with similar asking prices can cost very different amounts each month once fees are included. Look at the full monthly picture, not just the price.
Are GTA buyers still moving to Waterloo Region?
In past segments we have talked about buyers from the GTA moving out this way. With sales lower and slower right now, we are not seeing as much of that, but most of our buyers are still coming from the GTA. The reason is affordability. I shared an average sales price of about $630,000 in Kitchener Waterloo and about $668,000 in Cambridge. Cambridge sits a little higher because we are closer to Toronto, with easier access, and it works well as a bedroom community.
Will the market cool off this fall?
Finally, the big question: what should we expect over the next couple of months as we head into fall and winter? I expect things to progress much the same as what we are seeing right now.
For buyers, I said your biggest opportunity is to take it slow. You can include conditions on your offers and set a price you are comfortable with. For sellers, price it right.
I also said something I truly believe: I love buying homes in December. There is always a great deal. With snow on the ground everything looks good, and homes are already staged for the season. Beyond that, a lot will come down to whether the Bank of Canada holds or raises its rate, and then we will see what happens.
What this means for you
If you are buying in Waterloo Region, this is a market that rewards patience and preparation. Get your financing in order, protect yourself with conditions, and do not feel rushed. If you are selling, pricing is everything. The homes that sell are the ones priced to match today’s market, not last year’s.
Every street and every building is a little different, so general trends only tell part of the story. If you want to know where your home fits, find out what your home is worth or reach out to Shaw Realty Group directly. We are always happy to talk through your plans, whether you are buying, selling, or simply curious about the market in Cambridge, Kitchener or Waterloo.
Thank you to CTV Kitchener for having me back. I look forward to our next quarterly update.